Peter Sutherland
by Peter Sutherland
The referendum on Scottish independence, due on 18 September, comes at a time of growing opposition in the UK to remaining in the EU. This is significant because Scotland is the strongest base of pro-European sentiment in the UK.
A poll conducted earlier this year determined that if a referendum on continued EU membership had been held in June in the UK as a whole, 47.1 percent would have voted to leave, with 39.4 percent voting to remain. But a poll in February 2014 showed that in Scotland, 48.7 percent would vote for the UK to remain in the EU, with 35.4 percent voting to leave. Of course, it is premature to draw any firm conclusions from these figures.
The referendum on exiting the EU that David Cameron has proposed may not take place, regardless of the success (whatever that may mean) of his promised “renegotiation” of the terms of British membership. But as a result of various ostensibly minor issues, the likelihood of a British exit seems to be increasing – which fundamentally alters the importance of the vote in Scotland.
Given Cameron’s opposition to Juncker’s candidacy for commission presidency, the abuse to which Juncker has been subjected by the British press, and Hill’s lack of centrality within British politics, Cameron may be justifiably nervous when Juncker announces his appointments to the new commission. Juncker, after all, has many senior politicians to accommodate, and their approval by the European parliament is no minor matter.
If Cameron’s advisers overestimated the support they might have received from Merkel and others, they clearly underestimated the power and effectiveness of the European parliament. For many months it had made it clear that it had specific ideas about how it would exercise its new powers, granted by the Treaty of Lisbon, over the commission presidency. But the rapid post-election agreement among the parliament’s major political groups to support Juncker caught Cameron off guard.
Far from enhancing British influence, threats of withdrawal have undermined the UK government’s credibility within the EU, as colleagues have become disinclined to engage in significant compromises with a UK that may not be a member in two years. Traditionally, EU heads of state and governments try to help one another with their domestic political problems. But there is a growing sense in the European council that Cameron is abusing this goodwill.
Thus, Cameron’s claim that Juncker’s election would make it more difficult to ensure the UK’s continued EU membership risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. To present Juncker’s candidacy as a matter of high political principle, with Cameron heroically but unsuccessfully standing alone against the dark forces of federalism and centralisation, could have only reinforced English feelings of alienation from Europe. That is less likely to be the case in Scotland.
If Cameron returns as prime minister after the general election in 2015, he will face an uphill battle in renegotiating the terms of British EU membership owing to resistance not only from his European partners, but also from his own party, which is close to advocating British withdrawal. Indeed, it is difficult to see how a re-elected Cameron could maintain the Conservatives’ unity without endorsing a no vote in the referendum on the outcome of his own renegotiation.
Britain’s EU membership will be one of the major issues at stake in next year’s election. It would be a tragedy if British voters cast their ballots without fully understanding the European implications of their choice. One thing, however, seems certain: if Scotland votes for independence in September, a referendum within the rump UK on continued EU membership would be even less likely to produce a victory for those who wish to remain.
THE GUARDIAN
by Peter Sutherland
The referendum on Scottish independence, due on 18 September, comes at a time of growing opposition in the UK to remaining in the EU. This is significant because Scotland is the strongest base of pro-European sentiment in the UK.
A poll conducted earlier this year determined that if a referendum on continued EU membership had been held in June in the UK as a whole, 47.1 percent would have voted to leave, with 39.4 percent voting to remain. But a poll in February 2014 showed that in Scotland, 48.7 percent would vote for the UK to remain in the EU, with 35.4 percent voting to leave. Of course, it is premature to draw any firm conclusions from these figures.
The referendum on exiting the EU that David Cameron has proposed may not take place, regardless of the success (whatever that may mean) of his promised “renegotiation” of the terms of British membership. But as a result of various ostensibly minor issues, the likelihood of a British exit seems to be increasing – which fundamentally alters the importance of the vote in Scotland.
Given Cameron’s opposition to Juncker’s candidacy for commission presidency, the abuse to which Juncker has been subjected by the British press, and Hill’s lack of centrality within British politics, Cameron may be justifiably nervous when Juncker announces his appointments to the new commission. Juncker, after all, has many senior politicians to accommodate, and their approval by the European parliament is no minor matter.
If Cameron’s advisers overestimated the support they might have received from Merkel and others, they clearly underestimated the power and effectiveness of the European parliament. For many months it had made it clear that it had specific ideas about how it would exercise its new powers, granted by the Treaty of Lisbon, over the commission presidency. But the rapid post-election agreement among the parliament’s major political groups to support Juncker caught Cameron off guard.
Far from enhancing British influence, threats of withdrawal have undermined the UK government’s credibility within the EU, as colleagues have become disinclined to engage in significant compromises with a UK that may not be a member in two years. Traditionally, EU heads of state and governments try to help one another with their domestic political problems. But there is a growing sense in the European council that Cameron is abusing this goodwill.
Thus, Cameron’s claim that Juncker’s election would make it more difficult to ensure the UK’s continued EU membership risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. To present Juncker’s candidacy as a matter of high political principle, with Cameron heroically but unsuccessfully standing alone against the dark forces of federalism and centralisation, could have only reinforced English feelings of alienation from Europe. That is less likely to be the case in Scotland.
If Cameron returns as prime minister after the general election in 2015, he will face an uphill battle in renegotiating the terms of British EU membership owing to resistance not only from his European partners, but also from his own party, which is close to advocating British withdrawal. Indeed, it is difficult to see how a re-elected Cameron could maintain the Conservatives’ unity without endorsing a no vote in the referendum on the outcome of his own renegotiation.
Britain’s EU membership will be one of the major issues at stake in next year’s election. It would be a tragedy if British voters cast their ballots without fully understanding the European implications of their choice. One thing, however, seems certain: if Scotland votes for independence in September, a referendum within the rump UK on continued EU membership would be even less likely to produce a victory for those who wish to remain.
THE GUARDIAN
