Matthew Goodwin
by Matthew Goodwin
In the month since the European parliament elections, a growing number of voices on the left of British politics have warned that Labour is failing to grasp the significance of Ukip. After warnings from a shadow minister and the leader of Unison, the Fabian Society identified six Labour-held seats that Ukip – now the most working-class party in Britain – effectively “won” at the elections last month. In Rotherham, Rother Valley, Dudley North, Plymouth Moor View and Penistone and Stocksbridge, the speed of Ukip’s advance, coupled with evidence of a broader decline in blue-collar support for Labour, led the Fabians to talk of a “considerable vulnerability to Ukip”.
The 2014 election results were certainly a wake-up call for those who refused to believe that Ukip could inflict mass damage in Labour territory. While Labour took too long to acknowledge Ukip’s potential, it is now failing to understand its appeal. Most think they can halt Ukip by talking about the cost of living, protecting public services like the NHS, defending the interests of blue-collar Britons and talking in vague and abstract ways about devolving power or rebuilding institutions.
First, by the time Ukip arrives in Doncaster for its conference in September its policy review will most likely have neutralised these lines of attack by modifying its stance on issues such as the NHS.
Data from the latest British Election Study shows us that the voters who left Labour for Ukip were older, poorly educated white pensioners who hold a very different outlook from Labour MPs or thinktankers. But as the chart below shows, they were not driven to Ukip by the NHS or cost of living. Foremost, it is immigration and European integration that dominate the minds of voters who switched from Labour to Ukip at the European elections (yellow), and especially those who intend to now stay with Ukip (black). These Labour deserters are also more likely to think that important social changes such as giving equal opportunities to ethnic minorities and same-gender couples have gone too far. In short, those who have left or who are thinking of leaving Labour for Ukip don’t like modern Britain for social and cultural reasons – not economic.
The good news for Labour is that only a small number of its 2010 voters actually switched to Ukip in 2014 (about one in 10). But focusing only on this misses a fundamental longer term trend. There are now lots of angry, old white voters in Britain and Ed Miliband’s Labour is no longer their preferred destination. Between 2005 and 2013 Labour support among white working-class pensioners slumped from 45 percent to just 26 percent. In the same period, Ukip support among this group surged almost tenfold, from 3 percent to 28 percent.
Simply talking about current issues will not win these angry old white voters back, in the same way that social democrats across Europe talking only about the benefits of migration or European integration have not neutralised the radical right. While Labour has now finally recognised the challenge that Ukip represents, it must now devote serious effort to making sense of the underlying causes.
THE GUARDIAN
by Matthew Goodwin
In the month since the European parliament elections, a growing number of voices on the left of British politics have warned that Labour is failing to grasp the significance of Ukip. After warnings from a shadow minister and the leader of Unison, the Fabian Society identified six Labour-held seats that Ukip – now the most working-class party in Britain – effectively “won” at the elections last month. In Rotherham, Rother Valley, Dudley North, Plymouth Moor View and Penistone and Stocksbridge, the speed of Ukip’s advance, coupled with evidence of a broader decline in blue-collar support for Labour, led the Fabians to talk of a “considerable vulnerability to Ukip”.
The 2014 election results were certainly a wake-up call for those who refused to believe that Ukip could inflict mass damage in Labour territory. While Labour took too long to acknowledge Ukip’s potential, it is now failing to understand its appeal. Most think they can halt Ukip by talking about the cost of living, protecting public services like the NHS, defending the interests of blue-collar Britons and talking in vague and abstract ways about devolving power or rebuilding institutions.
First, by the time Ukip arrives in Doncaster for its conference in September its policy review will most likely have neutralised these lines of attack by modifying its stance on issues such as the NHS.
Data from the latest British Election Study shows us that the voters who left Labour for Ukip were older, poorly educated white pensioners who hold a very different outlook from Labour MPs or thinktankers. But as the chart below shows, they were not driven to Ukip by the NHS or cost of living. Foremost, it is immigration and European integration that dominate the minds of voters who switched from Labour to Ukip at the European elections (yellow), and especially those who intend to now stay with Ukip (black). These Labour deserters are also more likely to think that important social changes such as giving equal opportunities to ethnic minorities and same-gender couples have gone too far. In short, those who have left or who are thinking of leaving Labour for Ukip don’t like modern Britain for social and cultural reasons – not economic.
The good news for Labour is that only a small number of its 2010 voters actually switched to Ukip in 2014 (about one in 10). But focusing only on this misses a fundamental longer term trend. There are now lots of angry, old white voters in Britain and Ed Miliband’s Labour is no longer their preferred destination. Between 2005 and 2013 Labour support among white working-class pensioners slumped from 45 percent to just 26 percent. In the same period, Ukip support among this group surged almost tenfold, from 3 percent to 28 percent.
Simply talking about current issues will not win these angry old white voters back, in the same way that social democrats across Europe talking only about the benefits of migration or European integration have not neutralised the radical right. While Labour has now finally recognised the challenge that Ukip represents, it must now devote serious effort to making sense of the underlying causes.
THE GUARDIAN
