Dr Mohamed Al Rumaihi
Truth is the first casualty in a conflict, especially in civil wars, particularly when losses increase and facts disappear under a pile of illusions. There are many examples before us in the form of analyses that indicate lack of knowledge and insight about Arab issues.
Such analyses are based not on logic but desires, and some of them are used to mislead the public, stoke fear and twist the truth.
Many media outlets are taking part in this misleading propaganda, especially the social media channels that offer content which may not be from a trusted source. There are many examples of this.
I will start with what is happening in Yemen. A tug of war has been going on for months. Many Yemeni lives have been shattered by the coup carried out by the Houthis hand-in-hand with the remnants of the old regime.
The ecstatic statement of Abdul Malik Al Houthi in the evening of January 27 was nothing but deception. The more negative news came from Yemen, the more eagerly commentators were asking, “Where are Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries?”
This question was accompanied by clear or indirect signals that the Yemeni crisis was bound to negatively affect the Gulf states.
I would say that this analysis is not correct at all, and I borrow here this sarcastic phrase to illustrate my point: “If the house is strong, the storm around it will be pleasant!”
Of course, I do not intend to be malicious or suggest that we should enjoy the storm in Yemen, which is hurting its people. The Yemenis are our brothers, and everybody is sad about what is happening there.
What I mean is that the Gulf is strong and will not be affected by events in Yemen even if the Houthis manage to take control of Yemen in the near or far future.
Taking precaution due to what is happening in Yemen is a political necessity, but to say that what is happening there will affect the Gulf is unwise. There is a lot of evidence of the lack of any correlation between what is happening in Yemen and what can happen in the Gulf, like the events in Iraq and Syria, and before that in Iran.
Events in these three countries, despite their proximity to the Gulf states, didn’t affect the political structure of any of them, for no other reason except that the Gulf’s structure has to do with people, as it addresses their aspirations.
Many wise people saw what happened, and is still happening, to the Iranians, Syrians, Iraqis and Yemenis, and they learned a lesson, which was to maintain their nation’s structure, even though there are some comments about their policies; but it is a thousand times better than entering a world of chaos.
This wisdom is contrary to the opinion that the events of Yemen can affect the Gulf, and even that Yemen would become a failed state. These views are absurd creations of the media promoted by the Houthis.
They claim that they are going to “complete the march of the revolution,” but in fact they are trying to mislead the Yemenis and other Arabs. In fact, the Houthis have not only corrupted the purpose of the people’s revolution in Yemen, but also staged a counter-revolution that could lead to civil war.
Anyone observing the current events would not have been surprised to find that the Houthis announced the rule of the imam, “Wilayat al Faqih,” over Yemen, which portends rapid and utter collapse.
That could be the Houthis’ aspiration, but anyone who knows the Yemeni people and the country’s tribal, political and psychological composition knows that the Houthis are more or less just a group in Yemen; they don’t represent all Yemenis, no matter what their rhetoric suggests.
It is true that they are now backed by a regional power, Iran, and have abundant funds, but this support, despite all its guarantees, cannot be sustained amidst the shifting alliances in the region, especially the Iranian-US relation, which looks close to a settlement in a few months.
By then, even the slogans that the Houthis have borrowed from Iran, like “Death to America and Israel,” will wear out.
It also looks like the Houthis, an arrogant militia, did not make the right calculations. There is a coming confrontation that will bring tough challenges; if the Houthis take over power, there will be a confrontation with the people in the southern governorates.
A significant number of northern tribes do not want the Houthis as rulers, and the people of the south reject their domination.
In addition, the followers of the deep state of Abdullah Ali Saleh and those affected by the Yemeni revolutionary movement will turn against the Houthis when they realise that continuing their alliance with the militia will reduce their chances of returning to power.
Another reason why the Houthis will fail is that their project, as a whole, belongs to the past, in the light of 50 years of progress in Yemen.
The rule of imams in Yemen tried to find stability by taking the children of tribal elders hostage to ensure their loyalty to the imams’ rule.
This practice led to the emergence of many ideas, which resulted in the end of the imamate system.
Yemen will not go back to the Houthi system of rule by an imam as the people are now more aware.
The same holds true for Saleh’s rule since the Yemeni people had ousted him.
Moreover, the economic situation is deteriorating and it cannot be fixed by the Houthis while the country is divided and facing an international boycott.
The only way out for Yemenis is to move forward and build a modern state based on the principles and results of a Yemeni dialogue. This will not happen any time soon, and what we’re seeing now are the labour pains that are unfortunately accompanied by blood.
The author is an academic and a researcher in GCC affairs
