Alon Ben Meir
By Alon Ben Meir
Much has been said about President Obama’s strategy to degrade and eventually “destroy” the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Regardless of the soundness of the president’s strategy, to ensure greater success in defeating ISIS, three distinct interlinked aspects must be factored in: Careful consideration of the root causes behind the rise of ISIS, inclusion of socio-political and economic development along with the military campaign, and the real, not illusionary, role and capability of the coalition members Obama has assembled. Acting accordingly will permanently degrade ISIS and stop it from rising again.
The rise of many jihadist groups can be traced decades back to the reigns of corrupt and ruthless Arab dictators.
Adding to this mix is President Bush’s misguided Iraq war, which has ignited the long-dormant Sunni-Shia conflict, and the violent upheaval in the wake of the Arab Spring that swept several Arab states, culminating with the still-raging civil war in Syria.
ISIS is an offshoot of Al Qaeda (disavowed by them because of their savagery) which converged, among other jihadist groups, into a disintegrated Syria.
At the same time, secular and religious authoritarian regimes in the region have been adding fuel to the fire by supporting one jihadist group or another financially and with military equipment, while engaging in hate narratives against one another and against the West.
Millions of dispossessed, despairing, and despondent Arab youth are left with no place to go, no hope, and no future. They are consumed with anger and hatred of their corrupt and unresponsive leaders and the West, which acted only when the conditions served its interest.
For these reasons, the military campaign must be accompanied by sustainable economic development programmes to create jobs.
The US, European countries, and the oil-rich Arab states must raise billions of dollars strictly dedicated to that end and give young men and women the incentive to reject extremism and embrace moderation.
Sustainable development projects will galvanise local resources, and allow for the development of ownership and a sense of empowerment that build a social and economic structure from the bottom up.
We must carefully assess the role and responsibility of each member of the coalition (many of whom remain a mystery) and have no illusions about their importance and efficacy.
Iraq: We should have no delusions about the makeup and effectiveness of the new Iraqi government. Whereas the Kurds will join the military campaign willingly to safeguard their territory and autonomy, the full support of the Sunni tribes is not assured given their long, violent conflict with the former Shia Maliki government.
Before they throw their weight behind the Shias, they want to know what is in store for them. I maintain that nothing short of autonomous Sunni rule with equitable revenue-sharing from oil with a loose federalism will suffice.
The US must begin to lay the ground for this eventuality, and make it clear to the Abadi government that an Iraq free of violence depends on the Sunnis’ conviction that their fight against ISIS will benefit them rather than further consolidate the Shias’ hold on power.
Syria: President Obama’s plans to mobilise and train moderate Syrian rebels to fight ISIS will go nowhere regardless of how well-trained and equipped the Syrian rebels may be. They cannot be effective if they must fight on two fronts — ISIS and Assad’s forces.
The US must immediately target ISIS fortifications in Syria and some of Assad’s military assets.
Moreover, the US should capitalise on the growing sense of unease among the Alawites with Assad, as they are increasingly realising that there will be no end to the civil war as long as he remains in power.
An Alawite-Sunni axis in Syria is possible once the Alawites are assured that Assad’s butchery of the largely Sunnis communities will not be held against them once Assad is ousted and the Sunnis form a representative government.
The American aerial onslaught against ISIS must be overwhelming and simultaneously target ISIS in Iraq and Syria to prevent them from regrouping, recruiting, and developing new defensive positions and make their recovery extremely difficult.
Saudi Arabia: The war against ISIS is in principle a religious war that transcends the defeat of ISIS. Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia are waging a war by proxy in Syria and Iraq to secure regional hegemony. Their battle is one for survival and will not abate any time soon. Saudi Arabia should have every incentive not only to train Syrian rebels but actively participate in the military campaign.
Iran has been and will always be part of regional conflicts by supporting one side against the other. It is illusionary to assume that Tehran can be part of the solution.
Turkey: President Erdogan, who is guided by his Islamic convictions, will not help the fight against ISIS and nothing should be expected from Ankara other than lip service. Turkey has been and continues to be the gateway for jihadists coming from all over to cross the Turkish border into Syria and Iraq.
There are Arab states, including Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Oman, Kuwait and others, who should assist in different capacities in the campaign to defeat ISIS. It is incumbent on the US to ensure that this war is an inter-Arab war, with Western powers only supporting the moderate Arab camp while protecting their strategic interests.
To help defeat Islamist extremism, we must condition our future support to any Arab state affected by the scourge and insist that they commit to long–term and substantial socioeconomic and political programmes.
The Peninsula
By Alon Ben Meir
Much has been said about President Obama’s strategy to degrade and eventually “destroy” the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Regardless of the soundness of the president’s strategy, to ensure greater success in defeating ISIS, three distinct interlinked aspects must be factored in: Careful consideration of the root causes behind the rise of ISIS, inclusion of socio-political and economic development along with the military campaign, and the real, not illusionary, role and capability of the coalition members Obama has assembled. Acting accordingly will permanently degrade ISIS and stop it from rising again.
The rise of many jihadist groups can be traced decades back to the reigns of corrupt and ruthless Arab dictators.
Adding to this mix is President Bush’s misguided Iraq war, which has ignited the long-dormant Sunni-Shia conflict, and the violent upheaval in the wake of the Arab Spring that swept several Arab states, culminating with the still-raging civil war in Syria.
ISIS is an offshoot of Al Qaeda (disavowed by them because of their savagery) which converged, among other jihadist groups, into a disintegrated Syria.
At the same time, secular and religious authoritarian regimes in the region have been adding fuel to the fire by supporting one jihadist group or another financially and with military equipment, while engaging in hate narratives against one another and against the West.
Millions of dispossessed, despairing, and despondent Arab youth are left with no place to go, no hope, and no future. They are consumed with anger and hatred of their corrupt and unresponsive leaders and the West, which acted only when the conditions served its interest.
For these reasons, the military campaign must be accompanied by sustainable economic development programmes to create jobs.
The US, European countries, and the oil-rich Arab states must raise billions of dollars strictly dedicated to that end and give young men and women the incentive to reject extremism and embrace moderation.
Sustainable development projects will galvanise local resources, and allow for the development of ownership and a sense of empowerment that build a social and economic structure from the bottom up.
We must carefully assess the role and responsibility of each member of the coalition (many of whom remain a mystery) and have no illusions about their importance and efficacy.
Iraq: We should have no delusions about the makeup and effectiveness of the new Iraqi government. Whereas the Kurds will join the military campaign willingly to safeguard their territory and autonomy, the full support of the Sunni tribes is not assured given their long, violent conflict with the former Shia Maliki government.
Before they throw their weight behind the Shias, they want to know what is in store for them. I maintain that nothing short of autonomous Sunni rule with equitable revenue-sharing from oil with a loose federalism will suffice.
The US must begin to lay the ground for this eventuality, and make it clear to the Abadi government that an Iraq free of violence depends on the Sunnis’ conviction that their fight against ISIS will benefit them rather than further consolidate the Shias’ hold on power.
Syria: President Obama’s plans to mobilise and train moderate Syrian rebels to fight ISIS will go nowhere regardless of how well-trained and equipped the Syrian rebels may be. They cannot be effective if they must fight on two fronts — ISIS and Assad’s forces.
The US must immediately target ISIS fortifications in Syria and some of Assad’s military assets.
Moreover, the US should capitalise on the growing sense of unease among the Alawites with Assad, as they are increasingly realising that there will be no end to the civil war as long as he remains in power.
An Alawite-Sunni axis in Syria is possible once the Alawites are assured that Assad’s butchery of the largely Sunnis communities will not be held against them once Assad is ousted and the Sunnis form a representative government.
The American aerial onslaught against ISIS must be overwhelming and simultaneously target ISIS in Iraq and Syria to prevent them from regrouping, recruiting, and developing new defensive positions and make their recovery extremely difficult.
Saudi Arabia: The war against ISIS is in principle a religious war that transcends the defeat of ISIS. Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia are waging a war by proxy in Syria and Iraq to secure regional hegemony. Their battle is one for survival and will not abate any time soon. Saudi Arabia should have every incentive not only to train Syrian rebels but actively participate in the military campaign.
Iran has been and will always be part of regional conflicts by supporting one side against the other. It is illusionary to assume that Tehran can be part of the solution.
Turkey: President Erdogan, who is guided by his Islamic convictions, will not help the fight against ISIS and nothing should be expected from Ankara other than lip service. Turkey has been and continues to be the gateway for jihadists coming from all over to cross the Turkish border into Syria and Iraq.
There are Arab states, including Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Oman, Kuwait and others, who should assist in different capacities in the campaign to defeat ISIS. It is incumbent on the US to ensure that this war is an inter-Arab war, with Western powers only supporting the moderate Arab camp while protecting their strategic interests.
To help defeat Islamist extremism, we must condition our future support to any Arab state affected by the scourge and insist that they commit to long–term and substantial socioeconomic and political programmes.
The Peninsula
