Dr Abdul Hadi Al Ajmi
When Muawiya asked Amr ibn Al Aas, God bless them, “Where did your cleverness lead you,” Amr said: “By God, I haven’t indulged in a situation except that I had a good way out.” Muawiya then replied: “I’m not as clever as you, by God. Every time I get involved in a circumstance I need advice for a way out.”
I read this historical text while following, with a lot of concern, the military conflict in Yemen after the launch of Operation Decisive Storm by the Gulf alliance. Recently, several analysts and observers have been discussing a way out of this war, which I call “Amr’s way out.”
Through my analysis of the events, I don’t see any justification for the urgency in getting out of the war, which was imposed on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), particularly Saudi Arabia.
Under any circumstance, due to the current situation the future of Yemen will remain a matter of concern for the Gulf Arab nations and it is worth their sacrifices.
This critical stage in the history of the region makes it imperative for everyone not to hasten in finding a way out of this conflict, since it could so happen that in the end the GCC countries exit Yemen, instead of the Houthis.
There are three main dimensions to this conflict: The tribal dimension, the political dimension and the military dimension.
With regard to the tribal dimension, we must be aware that the southern tribes were pushed into this war without prior or even current arrangements and the Houthis do not have any influence or presence in these tribal regions.
Therefore the Houthis cannot get enough men to resist any attack, with the exception of a small number of men on their side, since most of the Yemeni tribes in the south are fighting for the People’s Committees, represented by the tribes of Al Awalik, Humair, Balhirath, Bani Hilal and other prominent southern tribes.
These southern tribes don’t have any military history linked to Ali Abdullah Saleh’s regime because of his campaign against them in the 1994 war, when more than 60,000 were demobilised. They don’t possess any qualitative military capability to withstand the Houthis and Saleh’s organised forces.
It is also worth mentioning that some of the Hadramout tribes are busy fighting Al Qaeda after it took over their capital, Al Mukla.
Therefore, there is an urgent need to rely on the northern tribal forces to bring some balance. These northern tribes are better equipped to fight back for several reasons, including experience, as a large number of their men were in the army, and due to their large numbers.
The northern tribes can make a qualitative difference in the fighting in the sense that each tribe in the north is against the axis of evil of Saleh and the Houthis.
These tribes can later be a force for the Gulf alliance and a gain for Operation Decisive Storm after the attrition of the axis of evil.
These tribes are represented in particular by the Al Jawf tribes and the Marib, Murad, Daham, Ubaida, Al Ashraaf and Al Bayda tribes, which include Qifah, Al Humaiqani, the tribe of Erhab and others.
In the coming period these tribes will be strategic allies, especially since they will not agree to sacrifice their sons to the ambitions of Saleh and the sectarian illusions of the Houthis.
In the past, these tribes have repeatedly made sacrifices against Saleh and the Houthis, and today the Gulf alliance needs them because they can have formation and coordination. Fighting under the umbrella of the alliance will help them face the opponent.
As for the political dimension, it relates mainly to the political parties, which are the main forces moving the crowds. The Eslah party (Muslim Brotherhood) tops the list of political powers after the former ruling party (GPC), and it has many members in the north and south.
We must find tools of coordination with the party despite the dispute over some issues, especially the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt.
This is not the right time for disputes, especially since the party has announced its unconditional support for Operation Decisive Storm and is paying the price, as its members are being arrested and assassinated by Saleh’s men and the Houthis.
This party has a widespread base and is making things difficult for the Houthis and Saleh, keeping them busy for some time while the coalition forces carry out their strikes against the Houthis, their stores of weapons and ammunition, and the military bases loyal to Saleh and the Houthis.
There is also a need to coordinate with other parties, such as the Socialist and the Nasserites, and many others that don’t have deep roots in the community but have major influence in the media, which can play a very important role in shaping Yemen’s future and resolving the current conflict.
As for the military dimension, although Decisive Storm is still limited to air strikes, it is extremely important to recruit military leaders with a long history and experience, especially those who have recently finished their military service, to form a military leadership in Yemen that has charisma and the ability to bring ex-military personnel under its flag.
It is incumbent that there is a representation for the northern leaders, including some well-known officers, most notably the commander Ali Mohsen Al Ahmar, a half-brother of Saleh and one of the leaders of the Congress Party, who refused to open fire on demonstrators and supported the youth in their peaceful movement in 2011. He was the commander who led Yemen’s six wars against the Houthis.
Although there are some reservations about Al Ahmar, there is a real need to have him and many others like him with the alliance.
The author is professor of history at Kuwait University
