Views /Opinion

Disintegration of globalization and repercussions of global events

The world is teeming with fast-tracking, great events, and many escalating crises whose rapid pace gives no chance for examining and analysing them carefully to come up with useful recommendations.

Not long ago in the late eighties and early nineties of the last century, a number of iconic thinkers around the world, such as Francis Fukuyama in his book The End of History and  Samuel Huntington in his book Clash of Civilizations, agreed that the world is on its way to globalization and that everyone should prepare for it. They threatened that whoever fails to join would be left behind. Developed countries began to impose their control and extend their hegemony economically, politically and intellectually over underdeveloped countries, promising the latter a prosperous future and a booming economy.

However, the nature and magnitude of the events that the world has witnessed recently confirmed that globalization will not be complete and that whatever is achieved of it has been declining, or dismantling, so to speak. What matters is that globalisation will not happen. The first phrase “the disintegration of globalization” denotes unintentionality, while the second one “deglobalization” means it is done on purpose.

Before entering into an explanation of the factors that cause deglobalization, and the mechanisms that started to subvert its foundations, I think it useful to briefly discuss its concept. Just as people differed in either accepting or rejecting globalisation, they also differed in its definition. 

However, there is a common denominator which is the globe in which we all live, and which unites our economic, social, intellectual and, therefore, political activities, without regard to the different religions, cultures, nationalities and races.

If we reflect on this definition, we will realise that it is the basis of the problem of globalization, and the first nail in its coffin. As long as the races are diverse, cultures are many, religions and passions are different, who else is capable of painting them all in one colour? Even in the field of economy alone, it is hard to put in place one set of controls and laws for it!

The answer is most likely to be: No one. Despite the ideologues who promote the US’s ability to do so, it is, however, impossible. France and Germany in Europe, for example, are reluctant to allow America shape their way of life and they stand firmly against every attempt to erase their identity. In Asia, there are China and Japan, both of which are well-grounded when it comes to their specificity, something that is not easy to overlook, let alone dissolve into globalization. Above all, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday, 15 April, that one of the goals of Russia’s war against Ukraine was to stop the US hegemony and expansion of its influence.

This is the clearest manifestation of the decline and disintegration of globalization. The decline manifested itself early, even before the COVID-19 pandemic struck the world. This decline accompanied the global financial crisis in 2008, the outbreak of the Sino-American trade war, Britain’s exit from the European Union, and the rise of Trump and other leaders to power. According to The Economist, out of the twelve indicators of global integration, eight have begun to decline or stagnate since 2008, with trade dropping from 61% of global GDP in 2008 to 58% in 2018. The capacity of supply chains and shipping semi-finished goods across borders have shrunk, while intermediate imports fell from 19% of global GDP to 17%. Multinational corporations have declined, and their share of global profits decreased from 33% to 31%, and long-term foreign investment by all companies (FDI) decreased from 3.5% of global GDP in 2007 to 1.3% in 2018.

As we reach the beginnings of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic hit the world by end of 2019, and thus borders were closed between countries, travel restrictions undermined tourism, global supply chains were disrupted, trade shrank, integration and economic cooperation froze and restrictions were imposed on the flow of goods, money and information. All this has formed the post-COVID-19 world, and the world beyound globalization.

As for the Russian-Ukrainian war, which reinforced the process of the disintegration of globalization, as soon as it erupted, European consumers felt its repercussions through the high prices of energy and food products, given that the two sides of the war are major global food producers and exporters.

Russia is the largest exporter of wheat, and one of the largest producers of fertilizers, while Ukraine comes in the 5th place. On the other hand, Western sanctions against Russia contributed to isolating this huge economy from the rest of the world. Economists believe that this matter has not only caused the disintegration of interconnected markets, but also harmed the progress which globalization has contributed to its occurence.

There remains something very important to conclude with, which is that there are unchangeable, irreversible divine laws that govern human life, confirming that globalization will not live as long as it is wished to, because it is first and foremost a violation of a predetermined predestination of God, that people should not be one nation. Allah says:” “Had Allah willed, He would have made you one nation [united in religion], but [He intended] to test you in what He has given you.” [HQ, 5:48]. Thus, globalization would be disintegrating, and Fukuyama’s “The End of History” whereby ideological differences would presumably perish, has now collapsed.

Dr. Buthaina Al Ansari is a Qatari academic and author. She held many senior  positions in government and private sectors and higher education institutions including Qatar University.