Noah Barkin
By Noah Barkin
The German election is still more than two months away but for many the vote’s final chapter has already been written.
Angela Merkel, it is widely assumed, is cruising to a third victory at the polls. When she wins, the thinking goes, there will be few, if any, major changes to German policy.
The vote could well play out according to script. Merkel’s conservatives hold a dominant 16-19 point lead over the next strongest party, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), and recent polls suggest she may be able to renew her centre-right coalition with the Free Democrats (FDP) after September 22.
But should she fail to secure a parliamentary majority with the FDP, the election aftermath is likely to be far messier than many casual observers of German politics presume.
In this scenario, Merkel would probably have to pay a very heavy price in terms of policy concessions to stay in the Chancellery.
Under the German political system, leaders must secure a majority in the Bundestag lower house of parliament to rule.
Merkel’s conservatives may be far ahead of the SPD in opinion polls, but they are unlikely to win more than 40 percent of the vote on election day, meaning she will have to find a partner to stay in power.
If she can’t do that with the FDP, which may not reach the 5 percent threshold to enter the Bundestag, the likelihood is that she turns to the SPD, with whom she ruled in her first term between 2005 and 2009.
HAUNTED
The problem this time around is that the SPD is dead-set on avoiding a “grand coalition” under Merkel.
That’s because the party is still haunted by their previous partnership, when Merkel co-opted many of her rival’s policy ideas, coaxed away its supporters and left the SPD with its worst election result in the post-war era four years ago.
Senior members of the party are vowing to prevent a repeat in September — even if it leads to months of post-election uncertainty.
After a string of regional victories in recent years, the SPD now governs in 13 of Germany’s 16 states. The party’s regional barons are particularly worried about another “grand coalition” and are exerting huge pressure on the SPD leadership to explore other options after the vote.
Despite the reluctance, Frank Decker, a political scientist at Bonn University, believes the SPD will not be able to avoid partnering with Merkel if she fails to get her preferred centre-right majority.
That’s because all other coalition combinations seem far-fetched.
POUND OF FLESH
With her decision to pull out of nuclear power after the Fukushima disaster in Japan, Merkel removed the biggest hurdle to a partnership with the environmentalist Greens, a combination that has been tried at state but never at the federal level.
But the cultural divide and policy gap between the parties, particularly on economic issues, are seen as too big to overcome.
Still, if the election result is not clear-cut, the expectation is that the major parties will sound each other out on most of these combinations.
Everyone will be talking to everyone, meaning talks on forming a new government could stretch well into November, as they did in 2005 when incumbent Gerhard Schroeder initially refused to concede defeat to Merkel because of her razor-thin margin of victory.
A poll this week for public television station ARD showed that 81 percent of Germans expect Merkel to remain chancellor after the vote, compared to just 13 percent who see her SPD challenger Peer Steinbrueck taking power.
REUTERS
By Noah Barkin
The German election is still more than two months away but for many the vote’s final chapter has already been written.
Angela Merkel, it is widely assumed, is cruising to a third victory at the polls. When she wins, the thinking goes, there will be few, if any, major changes to German policy.
The vote could well play out according to script. Merkel’s conservatives hold a dominant 16-19 point lead over the next strongest party, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), and recent polls suggest she may be able to renew her centre-right coalition with the Free Democrats (FDP) after September 22.
But should she fail to secure a parliamentary majority with the FDP, the election aftermath is likely to be far messier than many casual observers of German politics presume.
In this scenario, Merkel would probably have to pay a very heavy price in terms of policy concessions to stay in the Chancellery.
Under the German political system, leaders must secure a majority in the Bundestag lower house of parliament to rule.
Merkel’s conservatives may be far ahead of the SPD in opinion polls, but they are unlikely to win more than 40 percent of the vote on election day, meaning she will have to find a partner to stay in power.
If she can’t do that with the FDP, which may not reach the 5 percent threshold to enter the Bundestag, the likelihood is that she turns to the SPD, with whom she ruled in her first term between 2005 and 2009.
HAUNTED
The problem this time around is that the SPD is dead-set on avoiding a “grand coalition” under Merkel.
That’s because the party is still haunted by their previous partnership, when Merkel co-opted many of her rival’s policy ideas, coaxed away its supporters and left the SPD with its worst election result in the post-war era four years ago.
Senior members of the party are vowing to prevent a repeat in September — even if it leads to months of post-election uncertainty.
After a string of regional victories in recent years, the SPD now governs in 13 of Germany’s 16 states. The party’s regional barons are particularly worried about another “grand coalition” and are exerting huge pressure on the SPD leadership to explore other options after the vote.
Despite the reluctance, Frank Decker, a political scientist at Bonn University, believes the SPD will not be able to avoid partnering with Merkel if she fails to get her preferred centre-right majority.
That’s because all other coalition combinations seem far-fetched.
POUND OF FLESH
With her decision to pull out of nuclear power after the Fukushima disaster in Japan, Merkel removed the biggest hurdle to a partnership with the environmentalist Greens, a combination that has been tried at state but never at the federal level.
But the cultural divide and policy gap between the parties, particularly on economic issues, are seen as too big to overcome.
Still, if the election result is not clear-cut, the expectation is that the major parties will sound each other out on most of these combinations.
Everyone will be talking to everyone, meaning talks on forming a new government could stretch well into November, as they did in 2005 when incumbent Gerhard Schroeder initially refused to concede defeat to Merkel because of her razor-thin margin of victory.
A poll this week for public television station ARD showed that 81 percent of Germans expect Merkel to remain chancellor after the vote, compared to just 13 percent who see her SPD challenger Peer Steinbrueck taking power.
REUTERS
