Ladane Nasseri
By Ladane Nasseri
Eighteen months after picking up the phone to Barack Obama with an historic message of reconciliation, Iran’s President Hassan Rowhani has secured the outline of a nuclear agreement he expects to end his country’s isolation.
Succeeding where two presidents before him failed, Rowhani’s envoys on Thursday struck an accord with world powers that limits his country’s nuclear work in exchange for eventual relief from punishing sanctions. Diplomats, who hours earlier had appeared worn out and doubtful of the prospects, now have three months to hammer out the details of a final pact and complete the job.
“Uranium enrichment and all our nuclear technology is solely for the development of Iran and it will not be against any countries in the region or the world,” Rowhani said in a televised address on Friday. Iran has taken a step towards preserving its nuclear rights and the removal of sanctions with the deal and wants better ties with countries where relations are strained, he said.
The deal comes as welcome news to Iranians fed up with years of stagnation, rising prices and few jobs. Rowhani’s political opponents, who dominate parliament and see his agenda as a challenge to the tenets of the Islamic revolution and the nation’s sovereignty, will likely regroup and come out fighting.
Rowhani “based his electoral campaign on the reintegration of Iran into the international community and the associated economic benefit”, said Henry Smith, Senior Consultant, Control Risks, Dubai. A pact that lifts sanctions “will be perceived fairly broadly in Iran as a victory for him.”
Rowhani, analysts say, faces two challenges: He has to ensure economic benefits from the easing of sanctions reach people before they grow frustrated, and he’ll have to confront those hard-line rivals who will see the agreement reached in Lausanne, Switzerland, as a threat. The deal “will not end endemic factionalism in Iran,” said Ali Vaez, Senior Iran Analyst, International Crisis Group. “It is more likely to exacerbate it.”
As news of the pact agreed emerged, conservatives were quick to denounce it, identifying concessions they felt went too far. The decision to convert the controversial underground Fordo complex into a centre for advanced physics research with international participation is a “catastrophe,” Mehdi Mohammadi, adviser to Saeed Jalili, a conservative presidential candidate and former nuclear negotiator, said in a tweet reported by a local journalist. Mohammadi added: “This is not a balanced agreement.”
Since Rowhani took office in 2013 and then held the first phone call between the presidents of Iran and the US since the 1979 revolution, his policy of engagement with Iran’s arch-foe has irritated the conservatives who control the legislature and the judiciary.
Alongside his diplomatic successes, Rowhani has reduced inflation from above 40 percent when he took office to about 16 in January, and stabilised the rial. Yet his efforts to change Iranian society more broadly have been stymied. Hardliners in parliament impeached his science minister for attempting to relax restrictions on critical debate at universities and delayed the appointment of a successor. Key reformist politician and former president Mohammad Khatami, a Rowhani ally, has been silenced by a media gag. While their opposition has been muted in recent months amid qualified support for nuclear negotiations from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the president’s rivals will attack if they sense weakness.
“The real prize is sanctions being lifted, not a nuclear agreement,” said Geneive Abdo, a research fellow at Washington-based Stimson Centre. “The problem for Rowhani is that lifting of sanctions is going to take time,” he added.
“We will have to wait to see when the final agreement will come. It’s too early to be happy,” said a 54-year-old government employee. A housewife said the US was the real winner as no date was given for the lifting of sanctions.
Others focused on the potential for change. “There aren’t many opportunities and you cannot get a job without connections,” said Mahtab Noori, 20, an engineering student at University of Tehran. “A final agreement will make a lot of things easier.”
According to the pact, the US and the EU will only lift economic sanctions that have crippled the economy and slashed oil exports in half once inspectors verify its compliance with restrictions on uranium enrichment and monitoring of atomic facilities. US Secretary of State John Kerry said the process would take from six months to a year.
A January report by Congressional Research Service laid out the impact of rounds of US, UN and EU sanctions, which also cut Iran off from the global financial system. The economy is 20 percent smaller than it would have been without the sanctions enacted after 2010, it said. Closures among private businesses left one in five workers jobless. Reserves totalling $80bn are trapped overseas.
“You can expect generally a lot more noise after the nuclear deal, not necessarily about the deal, but focusing on other aspects of Rowhani’s support and some of his domestic policy positions,” said Smith of Control Risks.
WP-BLOOMBERG
By Ladane Nasseri
Eighteen months after picking up the phone to Barack Obama with an historic message of reconciliation, Iran’s President Hassan Rowhani has secured the outline of a nuclear agreement he expects to end his country’s isolation.
Succeeding where two presidents before him failed, Rowhani’s envoys on Thursday struck an accord with world powers that limits his country’s nuclear work in exchange for eventual relief from punishing sanctions. Diplomats, who hours earlier had appeared worn out and doubtful of the prospects, now have three months to hammer out the details of a final pact and complete the job.
“Uranium enrichment and all our nuclear technology is solely for the development of Iran and it will not be against any countries in the region or the world,” Rowhani said in a televised address on Friday. Iran has taken a step towards preserving its nuclear rights and the removal of sanctions with the deal and wants better ties with countries where relations are strained, he said.
The deal comes as welcome news to Iranians fed up with years of stagnation, rising prices and few jobs. Rowhani’s political opponents, who dominate parliament and see his agenda as a challenge to the tenets of the Islamic revolution and the nation’s sovereignty, will likely regroup and come out fighting.
Rowhani “based his electoral campaign on the reintegration of Iran into the international community and the associated economic benefit”, said Henry Smith, Senior Consultant, Control Risks, Dubai. A pact that lifts sanctions “will be perceived fairly broadly in Iran as a victory for him.”
Rowhani, analysts say, faces two challenges: He has to ensure economic benefits from the easing of sanctions reach people before they grow frustrated, and he’ll have to confront those hard-line rivals who will see the agreement reached in Lausanne, Switzerland, as a threat. The deal “will not end endemic factionalism in Iran,” said Ali Vaez, Senior Iran Analyst, International Crisis Group. “It is more likely to exacerbate it.”
As news of the pact agreed emerged, conservatives were quick to denounce it, identifying concessions they felt went too far. The decision to convert the controversial underground Fordo complex into a centre for advanced physics research with international participation is a “catastrophe,” Mehdi Mohammadi, adviser to Saeed Jalili, a conservative presidential candidate and former nuclear negotiator, said in a tweet reported by a local journalist. Mohammadi added: “This is not a balanced agreement.”
Since Rowhani took office in 2013 and then held the first phone call between the presidents of Iran and the US since the 1979 revolution, his policy of engagement with Iran’s arch-foe has irritated the conservatives who control the legislature and the judiciary.
Alongside his diplomatic successes, Rowhani has reduced inflation from above 40 percent when he took office to about 16 in January, and stabilised the rial. Yet his efforts to change Iranian society more broadly have been stymied. Hardliners in parliament impeached his science minister for attempting to relax restrictions on critical debate at universities and delayed the appointment of a successor. Key reformist politician and former president Mohammad Khatami, a Rowhani ally, has been silenced by a media gag. While their opposition has been muted in recent months amid qualified support for nuclear negotiations from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the president’s rivals will attack if they sense weakness.
“The real prize is sanctions being lifted, not a nuclear agreement,” said Geneive Abdo, a research fellow at Washington-based Stimson Centre. “The problem for Rowhani is that lifting of sanctions is going to take time,” he added.
“We will have to wait to see when the final agreement will come. It’s too early to be happy,” said a 54-year-old government employee. A housewife said the US was the real winner as no date was given for the lifting of sanctions.
Others focused on the potential for change. “There aren’t many opportunities and you cannot get a job without connections,” said Mahtab Noori, 20, an engineering student at University of Tehran. “A final agreement will make a lot of things easier.”
According to the pact, the US and the EU will only lift economic sanctions that have crippled the economy and slashed oil exports in half once inspectors verify its compliance with restrictions on uranium enrichment and monitoring of atomic facilities. US Secretary of State John Kerry said the process would take from six months to a year.
A January report by Congressional Research Service laid out the impact of rounds of US, UN and EU sanctions, which also cut Iran off from the global financial system. The economy is 20 percent smaller than it would have been without the sanctions enacted after 2010, it said. Closures among private businesses left one in five workers jobless. Reserves totalling $80bn are trapped overseas.
“You can expect generally a lot more noise after the nuclear deal, not necessarily about the deal, but focusing on other aspects of Rowhani’s support and some of his domestic policy positions,” said Smith of Control Risks.
WP-BLOOMBERG
