Sarah Ferris
By Sarah Ferris
A redistricting battle that has gripped Florida for more than a year could force Republican leaders to redraw the state’s political boundaries just months ahead of the midterm elections.
Several of the state’s Republican-drawn congressional districts — which one political scientist described as the most skewed he has ever studied — have come under attack by voting rights groups that allege the maps unfairly favour GOP candidates.
That coalition, led by the League of Women’s Voters, has argued that Republican legislators and staffers collaborated with political consultants to create the maps, which were approved in 2011 by Gov Rick Scott, a Republican
The case is being heard now in Leon County Circuit Court after the league filed a lawsuit alleging that the districts violate Florida’s “Fair Districts” law, which was approved by more than 60 percent of voters in 2010. If the lawsuit succeeds, the borders will have to be redrawn before the midterm elections this fall.
The trial is a culmination of a years-long battle over Florida’s political map, bringing in more than 30 current and former legislators as potential witnesses. Florida is one of the few states to apply rules to its congressional redistricting process, said Michael McDonald, a professor of politics at George Mason University and a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Brookings Institution.
McDonald said it has the potential to reshape redistricting decisions across the country, as well as the party balance in the state legislature. “If it rules in favour of the plaintiffs, you’re talking about a potential four-seat swing to Democrats. That’s probably not enough for [a] majority but it would make things more uncomfortable for Republicans,” he said.
Republican lawmakers have defended their redistricting effort, denying any partisan advantage although GOP consultants said they had been given access to the maps ahead of the public release.
The relationship between top party leaders and operatives was heavily scrutinised as multiple testimonies this week revealed frequent private meetings, deleted emails and more than 500 pages of internal documents about redistricting.
The maps had been put in place for the 2012 election, which saw Republicans keep control of the House though candidates received 1.4 million fewer votes overall than their Democratic counterparts.
Some of the nation’s leading social scientists testified this week that the boundaries of Florida’s districts were far more partisan than would be statistically likely.
“In this case, they did a really good job of following the recipe about how to do a partisan gerrymander,” California Institute of Technology statistics professor Jonathan Katz said Tuesday.
He found that even if there were equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats who turned out to vote, Republicans would win 58 percent of seats. The boundary issues were the most apparent in the state’s most pivotal districts, he said, adding that the maps were the most lopsided he had ever examined.
Hours later, Stanford University political scientist Jonathan Rodden, who was also paid to analyse the maps for the trial, said it was “virtually impossible” that the maps were crafted with the intent of creating equally competitive districts.
While McDonald said he believes there is enough evidence of partisan mapping, he said the “smoking gun” is a map that Republican consultants drew but the legislature chose not to use — one that would have given Democrats the edge.
The map, which McDonald called “damning evidence” of partisan gerrymandering, showed that the Republicans knew that a more competitive map was
possible. WP-BLOOMBERG
By Sarah Ferris
A redistricting battle that has gripped Florida for more than a year could force Republican leaders to redraw the state’s political boundaries just months ahead of the midterm elections.
Several of the state’s Republican-drawn congressional districts — which one political scientist described as the most skewed he has ever studied — have come under attack by voting rights groups that allege the maps unfairly favour GOP candidates.
That coalition, led by the League of Women’s Voters, has argued that Republican legislators and staffers collaborated with political consultants to create the maps, which were approved in 2011 by Gov Rick Scott, a Republican
The case is being heard now in Leon County Circuit Court after the league filed a lawsuit alleging that the districts violate Florida’s “Fair Districts” law, which was approved by more than 60 percent of voters in 2010. If the lawsuit succeeds, the borders will have to be redrawn before the midterm elections this fall.
The trial is a culmination of a years-long battle over Florida’s political map, bringing in more than 30 current and former legislators as potential witnesses. Florida is one of the few states to apply rules to its congressional redistricting process, said Michael McDonald, a professor of politics at George Mason University and a senior fellow at the nonpartisan Brookings Institution.
McDonald said it has the potential to reshape redistricting decisions across the country, as well as the party balance in the state legislature. “If it rules in favour of the plaintiffs, you’re talking about a potential four-seat swing to Democrats. That’s probably not enough for [a] majority but it would make things more uncomfortable for Republicans,” he said.
Republican lawmakers have defended their redistricting effort, denying any partisan advantage although GOP consultants said they had been given access to the maps ahead of the public release.
The relationship between top party leaders and operatives was heavily scrutinised as multiple testimonies this week revealed frequent private meetings, deleted emails and more than 500 pages of internal documents about redistricting.
The maps had been put in place for the 2012 election, which saw Republicans keep control of the House though candidates received 1.4 million fewer votes overall than their Democratic counterparts.
Some of the nation’s leading social scientists testified this week that the boundaries of Florida’s districts were far more partisan than would be statistically likely.
“In this case, they did a really good job of following the recipe about how to do a partisan gerrymander,” California Institute of Technology statistics professor Jonathan Katz said Tuesday.
He found that even if there were equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats who turned out to vote, Republicans would win 58 percent of seats. The boundary issues were the most apparent in the state’s most pivotal districts, he said, adding that the maps were the most lopsided he had ever examined.
Hours later, Stanford University political scientist Jonathan Rodden, who was also paid to analyse the maps for the trial, said it was “virtually impossible” that the maps were crafted with the intent of creating equally competitive districts.
While McDonald said he believes there is enough evidence of partisan mapping, he said the “smoking gun” is a map that Republican consultants drew but the legislature chose not to use — one that would have given Democrats the edge.
The map, which McDonald called “damning evidence” of partisan gerrymandering, showed that the Republicans knew that a more competitive map was
possible. WP-BLOOMBERG
