London: As 2013 draws to a close, the outlook on globalisation and sustainability suggests a tentative balance between two alternative futures: one of intensifying zero-sum competition — a scenario that would be disastrous for the world’s poor — and one of increasing co-operation in a revitalised, rules-based order.
Globalisation, the engine of emerging economies’ growth over the past 15 years, appears to be entering a period of increased stress. Having previously outstripped GDP growth for 30 years, trade has expanded more slowly since 2011. About 1,500 “stealth protectionist measures” have been introduced by G20 members since 2008, when they promised to eschew such practices. And amid stagnant wages, high unemployment, and anaemic growth, support for globalisation is waning in advanced economies.
Meanwhile, the world remains way off track for sustainability. Global greenhouse gas emissions are now 46 percent higher than they were in 1990, and the International Energy Agency estimates that existing policies will result in long-term warming of between 3.6C and 5.3C — well into the zone where catastrophic climate tipping points could be triggered, potentially wiping out progress made on poverty reduction over the past 15 years.
Efforts to formulate new international development targets to succeed the millennium development goals (MDGs) when they expire in 2015 are emerging as a key indicator of what the future holds. And it’s middle-income countries — a group that includes not just the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but also players like Indonesia, Turkey, and a range of highly influential Latin American countries, including Mexico and Colombia - that could have the casting vote on which of these scenarios we end up heading into.
The Guardian
