Parisa Hafezi - A final deal to resolve the Iranian nuclear dispute could heighten domestic political tensions with two major elections looming in the Islamic Republic, analysts and officials said.
Easing economic sanctions if a deal is reached will bolster President Hassan Rouhani’s position within Iran’s complex power structure bringing a political boost for liberal candidates in 2016 elections for parliament and for the Assembly of Experts, a clerical body with nominal power over the supreme leader.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on all matters of state, has backed Rouhani’s efforts to pursue a nuclear settlement and his dealings with the United States so as to improve the parlous state of Iran’s economy.
But Khamenei, who took over in 1989 from the founder of the Islamic Republic late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, has also worked to ensure that no group, including among his own hardline allies, gains enough power to challenge him.
Khamenei will not want pragmatist President Rouhani to gain too much power and influence ahead of the important elections, an Iranian official said.
“The leader has always made sure not to give too much authority to any official because it will damage the political establishment,” said the official, who asked not to be named.
“He is above all political factions and only acts based on Iran’s interests."
Iran, the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany are trying to end a more than 12-year standoff over Tehran’s nuclear programme by striking an agreement to halt Iranian nuclear work in return for sanctions relief.
The West says Iran is seeking to build weapons but Iran says its nuclear programme is to produce power.
Negotiators from all sides are gathering in Vienna in the hopes of striking a deal by a self-imposed deadline of Tuesday.
Rouhani, who represented Khamenei on the Supreme National Security Council for over two decades, will continue to enjoy Khamenei’s blessing as long as his growing prestige at home and abroad does not threaten Khamenei’s authority, analysts say.
An economic dividend could tip the balance of power in favour of Rouhani, whose allies could well be rewarded at the ballot box, to the detriment of other groups, including security hawks close to Khamenei.
“The deal will fuel domestic tension and pressure will increase inside the country,” said Iran-based analyst Saeed Leylaz.
“There will be two powerful minorities in the next parliament, reformists and conservatives.
And one weak minority of hardline conservatives,” said Leylaz.
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