Paris---Africa has long been the El Dorado just over the horizon for airlines, but sustained economic growth and the emergence of a middle class on the continent may finally clear the obstacles from the runway. "Today, Africa accounts for just a small portion of global air traffic: less than 3 percent of passengers when it has 15 percent of the world's population," said Bertrand Mouly-Aigrot, an air transport expert at Archery Strategy Consulting.
"Thus... there is considerable development potential," he added.
The forecasts for growth in air traffic are optimistic.
Boston Consulting Group sees average growth of 6.2 percent for the coming 10 years, 4.9 percent in the following decade and 5.5 percent the decade after that.
"The continent is following on the heels of the Asia and Asia-Pacific regions, two very dynamic regions," said Sylvain Duranton, an air transport specialist at the firm.
But that dynamism is so far limited to routes linking Africa with the rest of the world, with competition increasing as emerging industry majors like Emirates and Turkish Airlines have flown into the fray.
Meantime, few ply the skies between African destinations. The market has been left to local airlines with tiny fleets such as Senegal Airlines or Cameroon's Camair-Co. Ticket prices remain very high.
- 'Multiple barriers' -
"If all of the main African cities are served today by European, Gulf or even Chinese airlines, the internal market remains relatively undeveloped due to multiple barriers beginning with very high costs," said Didier Brechemier of the Roland Berger consulting firm.
He pointed to monopolies in ground services and fuel prices 30 percent higher than in Europe, as well as problems with maintenance and infrastructure.
Measures to protect national markets are also a problem.
"Today a quarter of the intra-African routes are served by just one company," noted Mouly-Aigrot.
Some estimate that the Africa's top five airlines -- South African Airways, Ethiopian Airlines, EgyptAir, Royal Air Maroc and Kenya Airways -- stand to gain from an end to regulations which have sliced up the continent's market.
"Many African countries need to work on further liberalised access to their skies, and where this has been done in other parts of the world it has led to an increase in trade and tourism, which has a positive impact on growth of local and regional economy," said Hubert Frach, a senior Emirates executive.
The International Air Transport Association, which groups 250 airlines that carry 84 percent of world traffic, holds a similar view.
AFP
