Lome - Togo elects a new president on Saturday, with the main opposition leader Jean-Pierre Fabre seeking to end nearly 50 years of rule by the Gnassingbe family.
The election in the tiny West African country takes place in a context of change in the region, after a popular uprising ousted neighbouring Burkina Faso's Blaise Compaore last year and Muhammadu Buhari's recent win in Nigeria.
Compaore was unseated after he tried to extend his 27-year hold on power while Buhari secured the first opposition presidential election victory in Nigeria's history last month.
Some 3.5 million voters will decide whether to follow suit and elect Fabre or stick with Faure Gnassingbe, whose 10 years in power follows 38 by his late father, General Gnassingbe Eyadema.
No polls or surveys exist to predict the election outcome.
But diplomats, politicians and members of civil society told AFP the result could be closer than during the last election in 2010.
Gnassingbe remains the favourite to win a third term in power but Fabre, leader of the main opposition Combat for Political Change (CAP) coalition, has gained ground.
"We are pleasantly surprised by the calm of the campaign but (the gap) has narrowed. Fabre can win," said one Western diplomat.
Even those in power are not ruling out the opposition's chances.
"It could shift. I would say that Faure has a 75 percent chance of winning and Fabre 25 percent," said one government minister.
In 2010, Gnassingbe won 60.81 percent of the vote against 33.93 percent for Fabre -- results that were contested by the opposition.
But the international community judged the outcome "acceptable" as opposed to the 2005 election which was marred by fraud and violence resulting in between 400 and 500 deaths, according to the United Nations.
AFP
