Washington: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from its previous July forecast of 3 percent, while maintaining its 2026 growth forecast at 3.1 percent.
In its annual "World Economic Outlook" report, issued Tuesday on the occasion of the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group, the IMF affirmed the resilience of the global economy despite the economic volatility and trade tensions that characterized the current year.
The report indicated that 2025 was characterized by volatility due to international trade policies, particularly the tariffs imposed by the United States against a number of countries, which raised tariffs to levels unprecedented in more than a century. These tariffs were later reduced through agreements between Washington and its trading partners, limiting their negative impact on global growth, despite the ongoing uncertainty.
The IMF indicated that advanced economies will grow by 1.6 percent in 2025, the same as expected for 2026, with a slight increase from last July's forecast.
It expects the US economy to grow by 2 percent in 2025 and 2.1 percent in 2026, supported by investments in artificial intelligence and technology. The eurozone economy will grow by 1.2 percent in 2025 and 1.1 percent in 2026, with Germany remaining the weakest among major economies at 0.9 percent in 2026.
In developing and emerging economies, GDP is expected to grow by 4.2 percent in 2025 and 4 percent in 2026, with official development assistance continuing to decline by 9 percent, impacting migration flows to advanced economies.
As for the Middle East and North Africa region, the report forecasts growth of 3.3 percent in 2025, rising to 3.7 percent in 2026, with inflation reaching 12.2 percent this year and declining to 10.3 percent in 2026. Real per capita output is projected to grow by 1.4 percent in 2025 and 1.9 percent in 2026.
The report indicated that the Chinese economy will achieve growth of 4.8 percent in 2025 and 4.2 percent in 2026, while Mexico will experience moderate growth of 1 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, with growth forecasts remaining below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7 percent.
Regarding global inflation, the IMF forecasts it to reach 4.2 percent in 2025 and 3.7 percent in 2026, highlighting differences between countries and regions depending on local economic policies.
The IMF emphasized that the full impact of tariffs on prices will take time to emerge, but that agreements and exemptions have reduced the shock to markets.
In the same context, the IMF's Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, emphasized that the new forecasts reflect a gradual adjustment to trade tensions and economic reforms.
He emphasized that continued investment, particularly in innovation and technology, can support growth, despite potential risks if revenues fail to materialize or consumption and investment levels decline.
The report concluded that the global economy remains resilient, with the ability to adapt to changing global conditions, ensuring continued growth and relative stability in the medium term. It is essential to continue pursuing trade and financial policies to ensure market stability and achieve sustainable development at the global and regional levels.
