PARIS: The French economy will grow by just 0.2 percent in the second quarter of 2014, the central bank forecast yesterday, as company morale faltered despite a pro-business push by the Socialist
government seeking to tame unemployment and cut the deficit.
The Bank of France estimated that the eurozone’s second-biggest economy would also grow 0.2 percent in the first three months of the year, half the eurozone average according to a poll of economists. Germany is forecast to grow 0.7 percent.
Economists expect on average that the INSEE national statistics agency will report
first quarter growth of 0.2 percent for France when it publishes GDP data for the period on May 15.
President Francois Hollande has made cutting unemployment, at 10.2 percent, his priority, but has made little headway, driving his approval ratings to a record low of 18 percent, according to an OpinionWay poll released on Sunday.
He hopes to spur economic recovery by phasing out €30bn ($41.3bn) in payroll tax on companies over the next year. Although Hollande has billed
the move as a major shift towards more business-friendly policies, companies’ outlook remained tepid and lagged behind morale in other major eurozone countries. The central bank gave its estimate in its monthly business climate survey for April which showed morale in the industrial sector slipped to 98 from
99 in March, pulling back from the index’s long-term average
of 100.
In a sign of still weak demand, factories’ idle capacity was reduced only marginally last month to 76.4 percent, still well below the long-term average of 81.5 percent.
In the services sector, the indicator was unchanged from March at 94. Business leaders polled in both sectors said their cash positions had improved despite cutting prices for clients and that they expected activity to improve this month.
“After monthly data pointing to downwards risks to the first quarter, surveys are now sending bearish signals into the second quarter,” Barclays economist Fabrice Montagne said. “Eventually, the capacity to rebound will depend on the recovery in investment and consumption, which remains highly dependent on the overall political and social environment,” he added.
INSEE will report GDP on Thursday using new international rules to account for research and development spending and military hardware investment.
Eurostat estimates that could boost France’s total GDP level by two to 3 percent, although the impact should be minimal on percentage changes from one period to another — the general measure of economic growth. However, an increase of up to 3 percent in total nominal GDP would have the benefit of reducing France’s public deficit ratio slightly.
On that basis, the 2013 deficit would be 4.1 percent of GDP instead of the 4.3 percent the government originally reported, according to calculations, helping the government as it struggles to meet a pledge to bring the deficit in line next year with an EU-agreed limit of 3 percent.
The government says it will meet the target. The European Commission expects the French deficit to come in at 3.4 percent next year. Reuters
