Warsaw - Poles vote Sunday in the first round of a presidential election after a lacklustre campaign focused on defence and social issues, with popular incumbent Bronislaw Komorowski expected to win.
But the 62-year-old historian, who was elected in 2010 and is close to the governing centrist Civic Platform (PO) party, appears unlikely to secure a second term without a run-off vote on May 24.
"President Komorowski has the advantage of being well-known among Poles, with his affable... ways," political scientist Mikolaj Czesnik said of the father of five.
"But his focus on the external threats Poland is facing is less effective than his rivals' promises," he told AFP.
While Komorowski focuses on the security challenges Warsaw faces amid heightened tensions with Moscow over the Ukraine crisis, his rivals are trying to appeal to voters by pledging to lower the retirement age and to bring taxes down.
The ballot comes ahead of an autumn parliamentary vote with early opinion polls pegging the PO narrowly ahead of its main rival, the Law and Justice (PiS) conservative party.
PiS presidential candidate Andrzej Duda, a 42-year-old lawyer running a distant second, has promised social benefits galore in fiery campaign speeches.
"His promises go well beyond the powers of the president and his generous economic proposals could even ruin the (much larger) German budget," said Radoslaw Markowski, a political scientist at the Polish Academy of Sciences.
Komorowski has been losing momentum in opinion polls -- from almost 50 percent support a few months ago to less than 40 percent days before the ballot -- while Duda has seen his backing stall at just below 30 percent.
Anti-establishment rock star Pawel Kukiz is tipped for the third spot with 11 percent support, thanks to a growing young and disillusioned electorate.
Marginally popular contenders include a leftist political unknown with model good looks, and five populist right-wingers.
AFP
